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Match-lines: 2006 World Cup Soccer versus Logic . . .
... If logic sufficed...
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Match-lines: Soccer x Logic... |  |
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| Magic of complexity | |
 World Cup Match Line |
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If logic sufficed... |
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| Soccernomics! |  |
Related:  WC Groups & FIFA Rankings |
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Beyond logic... |
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The results of a scientific-based attempt, by the Decision Technology group at the University of Warwick, at figuring out the odds for the 2006 World Cup are as follows: France surprisingly tops the list, their squad having 11.6% chances of winning this World Cup, the heavy favorite Brazil, again surprisingly, rating at only 11.3%, host-county squad Germany 11.1%, the Netherlands 11%, Spain 10.1%, the Czech Republic, likewise surprisingly (in view of FIFA's rankings), at only 8.2%, Italy 5.8%, Portugal 5.1%, ahead of Argentina and Sweden, both assigned no more than 4.9% chances of winning the World Cup, and England only 4.7%. The remaining contestants all rate below 1% chance, lining up behind Croatia (2.9%), their squad followed by both the United States and Mexico, sharing a mere 1.4%, and by Poland (1.3%). For the full results, see the article and chart published by The Times Online, or check the "commentisfree" on-line section of the Guardian Unlimited (English papers, both), or check it directly, if you have time to spare and trust you can understand how the statistical model works. The use of possibly a far simpler formula evidently renders different results, Brazil rating at a 13.5% chance of winning, followed by both France and Germany (11%), and by the Netherlands and Spain–these squads comprising the top five. (The page linked to includes a number of readers' comments, as well.) The Gulf News, on the other hand, published news from Dubai, on June 8, according to which Brazil is predicted to win this World Cup, once more playing the final match against Italy (it would be their third final, if confirmed!). This prediction results from a computer model based on statistics, developed by two 22-year old Computer Science students (Imran Fanaswala and Yashar Fasihnia) at the American University in Sharjah, under the supervision of their professor (Prof. Joachim Diederich). FIFI, which stands for FIFA Intelligence, is the name given to their artificial intelligence World Cup predictor. The predicted semifinal matches are to be the Netherlands versus Italy and England versus Brazil–the Netherlands having eliminated the World Cup hosts (Germany) in the quarterfinals, and England likewise sending old rivals home, as they are predicted to beat Argentina, on their way to the semifinals. See the Gulf News article for further details, including reference to the fact that the larger the number of variables which can be included in our attempts to predict (such as "pitch condition, temperature, age of players, experience," etc., in the case of soccer) the greater the accuracy in the result–see previous eBook page Magic of complexity for related remarks. Finally, news from Singapore predict the Czech Republic as this World Cup winner, defeating Brazil by a 2x1 score, in the final match! The prediction once more relied on artificial intelligence: it was made by software engineers from Electronic Arts (a firm specialized in sports computer games), who used a computer simulation of the World Cup. Should you wish to try your hand at predicting the World Cup results, the BBC site carries what they call a score predictor. I have not tried it, so I cannot tell you beyond the fact that it is available, and that it does not look like it is attached to any sort of betting or gambling. In addition to the tables that follow, see the Beyond logic... page for a few fun numerical attempts at predicting (most of which mentioned on the FIFA site), and then see the Soccernomics! page for an original approach at predicting the World Cup outcome, which did not exactly bear a relationship to soccer, but which actually turned out to be remarkably accurate, give or take a very small margin of error. Below, the simplest method of all (merely following FIFA's latest rankings before the World Cup kick-off) renders a fun illustration of how far from logic soccer results can really get. Don't forget to compare the "logical results," below, with the actual results, placed on the eBook page World Cup Match Line in the same format as below, so as to allow the comparison at a glance.| if logic sufficed... | Squads playing 2nd.Rd.: | ||
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    Germany Costa Rica Poland Ecuador |
     England Paraguay Trinidad and Tobago Sweden |
     Argentina Côte d'Ivoire Serbia and Montenegro Netherlands |
    Mexico Iran Angola Portugal |
    Italy Ghana United States Czech Republic |
     Brazil Croatia Australia Japan |
    France Switzerland Korea Republic Togo |
     Spain Ukraine Tunisia Saudi Arabia |
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| Original Groups | If logic sufficed... Gr.A-B-C-D Squads playing Round of 16: |
If logic sufficed... Gr.E-F-G-H Squads playing Round of 16: |
Original Groups | |
| 1A • 2B | Germany x Sweden |
United States x Japan |
1E • 2F | |
| 1B • 2A | England x Costa Rica |
Brazil x Czech Republic |
1F • 2E | |
| 1C • 2D | Netherlands x Portugal |
France x Tunisia |
1G • 2H | |
| 1D • 2C | Mexico x Argentina |
Spain x Korea Republic |
1H • 2G | |
| Squads playing Quarter-Finals: | Squads playing Semi-Finals: | |||
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| B • C | Sweden x Netherlands |
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| B • D | England x Mexico |
Netherlands x United States |
C • E | |
| E • G | United States x France |
Mexico x Brazil |
D • F | |
| F • H | Brazil x Spain |
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| Squads playing 3rd.Pl.Match: | Squads playing Final Match: | |||
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| E • D | United States x Mexico |
Netherlands x Brazil |
C • F | |
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Man of the Match | |
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 Match by Match |
Top Players |
Player by Player |
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| # | Group  |
Group  |
Group  |
Group  |
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| 1 | GER: Germany |
ENG: England |
ARG: Argentina |
MEX: Mexico |
1 |
| 2 | CRC: Costa Rica |
PAR: Paraguay |
CIV: Côte d'Ivoire |
IRN: Iran |
2 |
| 3 | POL: Poland |
TRI: Trinidad and Tobago |
SCG: Serbia and Montenegro |
ANG: Angola |
3 |
| 4 | ECU: Ecuador |
SWE: Sweden |
NED: Netherlands |
POR: Portugal |
4 |
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| # | Group  |
Group  |
Group  |
Group  |
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| 1 | ITA: Italy  |
BRA: Brazil |
FRA: France |
ESP: Spain |
1 |
| 2 | GHA: Ghana |
CRO: Croatia |
SUI: Switzerland |
UKR: Ukraine |
2 |
| 3 | USA: United States |
AUS: Australia |
KOR: Korea Republic |
TUN: Tunisia |
3 |
| 4 | CZE: Czech Republic |
JPN: Japan |
TOG: Togo |
KSA: Saudi Arabia |
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